My subjective notes on the state of AI at the end of 2024
4 points by tiendil 2 days ago | 4 comments
The AI landscape continues to evolve rapidly. At the end of 2024 I take time to reflect on the current state of AI and make some predictions about the future. The results are this series of four posts that I want to share with you:
1. Industry Transparency: https://tiendil.org/en/posts/ai-notes-2024-industry-transparency
2. Generative Knowledge Bases: https://tiendil.org/en/posts/ai-notes-2024-generative-knowledge-base
3. Current State: https://tiendil.org/en/posts/ai-notes-2024-the-current-state
4. Forecast: https://tiendil.org/en/posts/ai-notes-2024-prognosis
Since posts are quite long, here are key takeaways.
By analyzing the decisions of major AI developers, such as OpenAI or Google, we can make fairly accurate assumptions about the state of the AI industry.
All current progress is based on a single base technology — generative knowledge bases, which are large probabilistic models.
The development of neural networks, a.k.a. generative knowledge bases, is reaching a plateau. Future progress is likely to be incremental/evolutionary rather than explosive/revolutionary.
We shouldn't expect singularity, strong AI, or job loss to robots (in the near future).
Instead, we should expect increased labor productivity, job redistribution, turbulence in education, and shifts in the education level of future generations.
What do you think? How does the concept of "generative knowledge bases" resonate with your understanding of the current situation?
343rwerfd a day ago | next |
You're mentioning only publicly known information. The rumors mentioning radical advances behind closed doors are wild, and then you've suddenly got some stuff like deepseek or phi-4.
Rumors mention recursive "self" improvement (training) already ongoing at big scale, better AIs training lesser AIs (still powerful), to became better AIs, and the cycle restarts. Maybe o1 and o3 are just the beginning of what was choosed to make available publicly (also the newer Sonnet).
https://www.thealgorithmicbridge.com/p/this-rumor-about-gpt-...
The pace of change is actually uncertain, you could have revolutionary advances maybe 4-7 times this year, because the tide has changed and massive hardware (only available to few players) isn't a stopper anymore given that algorithms, software is taking the lead as the main force advancing AI development (anyone in the planet with a brain could make a radical leap in AI tech, anytime going forward).
https://sakana.ai/transformer-squared/
Beside the rumors and relatively (still) low impact recent innovations, we have history: remember that the technology behind gpt-2 existed basically two years before they made it public, and the theory behind that technology existed maybe 4 years before getting anything close to something practical.
All the public information is just old news. If you want to know where's everything going, you should look to where's the money going and/or where are the best teams working (deepseek, others like novasky > sky-t1).
https://novasky-ai.github.io/posts/sky-t1/